Hyperliquid’s HYPE Token Unlocks

Hyperliquid has cemented itself as the undisputed king of decentralized perpetual futures. Running on its own high-performance Layer-1 with fully on-chain order books, it consistently handles $300–600 billion in monthly volume and commands over 70% of the entire DeFi derivatives market (1). The native HYPE token sits at the heart of the flywheel: 97% of fees are used to buy back and distribute HYPE, staked tokens earn real yield, and governance remains in community hands.

Tomorrow, November 29, 2025 exactly one year after the TGE, the first major cliff unlock arrives. Starting with an initial 9.92 million HYPE tokens (≈ $310–350 million at current prices of $31–35), the core contributor allocation of 23.8% of total supply (238 million tokens, ≈ $11.9 billion FDV impact) begins a 24-month linear vesting schedule (2). What the Hyperliquid team and early contributors do with these tokens could factor into how HYPE evolves not just its own coin but leads by example for the rest of crypto. Below are the numbers, the risks, and the three realistic paths forward.

The Raw Numbers Behind the Unlock

• Total supply: 1 billion HYPE (fixed forever)
• Current circulating supply: ≈ 271 million (27.1%)
• November 29 cliff: 9.92 million HYPE to core contributors (≈ 3.66% of current circ supply)
• Monthly linear thereafter: ≈ 9.9 million HYPE/month for 24 months
• Fully diluted impact of the entire contributor tranche: $11.9 billion at today’s price
• Assistance Fund (buyback treasury) current holdings: ≈ 29.8 million HYPE worth >$1.5 billion, accumulated almost entirely from trading fees in 2025 (3)

For context, Hyperliquid alone accounted for roughly 46% of all crypto project buybacks in 2025. Daily revenue routinely exceeds $5–7 million, with 97% of protocol fees routed straight to HYPE buybacks (4).

Short-Term Pressure vs. Structural Support

Recent on-chain activity highlighted the team unstaking 2.6 million HYPE and several large whale withdrawals totaling >$120 million. Yet Hyperliquid is structurally different from 2021–2023 projects. The Assistance Fund is already the most aggressive buyback engine in crypto and has proven it can absorb eight-figure daily volume. If trading activity stays at current levels, the fund could theoretically neutralize 20–40% of the monthly unlock pressure by itself (5).

The Three Scenarios That Matter

Scenario 1 – Team Sells Everything on Open Market 

The team (and any aligned early contributors) sends the entire 9.92 million tranche straight to exchanges and market-sells for immediate liquidity. The issue with this is trust for the team would collapse, volumes migrate to competitors (Lighter, Aster, GMX), buybacks weaken, and the reflexive flywheel breaks. No top-tier team has done this and lived to tell the tale.

Scenario 2 – Team Sells a Fraction via OTC 

30–60% of each tranche is sold over-the-counter to institutions, market makers, or long-term funds, typically at a modest discount and with 3–12 month lock-up clauses on the buyer side. The remainder is staked or held. This is exactly what Aptos, Sui, and Celestia did in 2023–2024 and all three survived and later hit new highs (6).

Scenario 3 – Team Relocks or Re-Stakes Everything 

The team publicly commits to re-lock the entire allocation. This could happen  by extending vesting another 2–4 years, moving tokens into HyperEVM staking pools, or converting portions into ecosystem grants.

Final Thoughts

Tomorrow’s unlock is undeniably the biggest risk event in Hyperliquid’s young history. Size alone justifies caution. But the built-in buyback engine, absence of VC overhang, and real revenue generation gives the token support. Watch on-chain flows, Assistance Fund wallet activity, and any surprise governance announcements over the next 48 hours. Those three data points will tell you which scenario is playing out long before the price does.

References

1. Hyperliquid perp data 
2. Coinrank Hyperliquid Tokenomics
3. Hyperliquid Crushes Competition with 46% of All Token Buybacks in 2025
4. Hyperliquid Buyback, Burn, and Staking Mechanism Research Report
5. Navigating HYPE's November Token Unlocks: A Critical Inflection Point for Hyperliquid’s Long-Term Value
6. The Celestia Foundation's OTC coin selling behavior has faced criticism from the community, raising doubts due to the lack of timely and transparent disclosure